Bitcoin Outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Gold Since Iran War Began: What Forex Traders Need to Know

Bitcoin Outperforms S038P — Bitcoin has emerged as a surprising safe-haven asset in 2026, outperforming major traditional markets including the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and gold since the start of the Iran war on February 28, 2026. For traders and investors monitoring forex and crypto markets, this shift signals important changes in how digital assets are being perceived during geopolitical crises.

At ScamBrokersReview, we track market-moving events that affect retail traders — including how scam brokers exploit fear and volatility to lure unsuspecting investors. Understanding Bitcoin’s recent performance is critical to making informed decisions and avoiding manipulative broker schemes during uncertain times.

Bitcoin’s Performance Since the Iran War Began

According to CNBC data, Bitcoin gained approximately 8% since the Iran war began on February 28, 2026. During the same period:

• The S&P 500 declined more than 3%
• Gold dropped over 3% — surprising for a traditional safe-haven
• The Nasdaq Composite fell more than 2%
• Bitcoin gained ~5% in just a single week ending mid-March 2026

Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, highlighted Bitcoin’s diversification value on CNBC’s ETF Edge: “If you look at bitcoin, it’s up a little bit and equities are down since the Iran war began. So, I think the diversification story really holds in this current environment.”

Context: Bitcoin Still Down From All-Time High

While Bitcoin’s recent outperformance is notable, perspective matters. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025 and has since dropped more than 40% from that peak, even accounting for its recent gains. Kim Arthur, founding partner of Main Management, describes this as a classic “crypto winter” — a cyclical bottoming phase that historically occurs every four years.

“Bitcoin was trading at $125,000 five months ago. So, it was down 50-plus percent when this conflict erupted,” Arthur noted. “I do like the fact that it’s outperformed a lot of other asset classes since the war, but you have to widen the lens a little bit on that.”

What About Crypto ETFs?

ProShares’ CoinDesk 20 Crypto ETF (KRYP), launched in February 2026, gained nearly 5% since the Iran war started — but remains down approximately 7% from its debut price. This highlights an important reality for retail investors: short-term war-period gains don’t erase longer-term losses.

Why Does Bitcoin Outperform During Geopolitical Crises?

Several factors explain Bitcoin’s relative strength during the Iran conflict:

• Decentralization: Bitcoin isn’t tied to any single government or banking system, making it resistant to geopolitical sanctions or asset freezes
• Limited supply: With a hard cap of 21 million BTC and nearly 20 million already mined, Bitcoin’s scarcity mirrors gold — a traditional inflation hedge
• Institutional adoption: Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue attracting inflows, with five consecutive days of positive flows in mid-March 2026
• Narrative momentum: The Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance has boosted market confidence in digital asset regulation
• Portfolio diversification: Fund managers increasingly view Bitcoin as an uncorrelated asset that can cushion equity drawdowns

What Forex Traders Should Watch

For forex traders, Bitcoin’s behavior during this geopolitical period has direct implications:

• USD correlation: A weakening dollar environment — partly driven by Iran war uncertainty — typically supports crypto and commodity prices
• Risk sentiment: When equities sell off on geopolitical fear, watch BTC/USD as a leading indicator for broader risk appetite
• Broker exploitation: During volatile periods, unregulated brokers often push clients into leveraged crypto positions. Be extremely cautious of any broker promising guaranteed returns during market uncertainty

If you’re unsure about your broker’s legitimacy, use our broker review database to verify their regulatory status before depositing funds.

Red Flags: Crypto Scams That Spike During Wars

Geopolitical crises historically trigger a surge in crypto and forex scam activity. Fraudulent brokers and trading platforms use fear-based marketing to recruit victims. Watch out for:

• “Safe-haven crypto accounts” — No such thing. All crypto carries significant risk
• Unsolicited investment advice referencing the Iran war as urgency to invest now
• Fake forex brokers promising to hedge your savings in Bitcoin through their platform
• Unregulated OTC platforms that disappear after taking deposits
• Telegram/WhatsApp groups with “insider” war-time crypto tips

Always verify broker regulation through official bodies like the FCA (UK), ASIC (Australia), or CySEC (Cyprus). Read our broker scam exposés to stay protected.

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook: A Passive Play?

Kim Arthur’s passive approach reflects growing institutional wisdom: treat Bitcoin as a benchmark asset rather than a trading instrument. Over the past five years, Bitcoin has gained approximately 15% — a modest but meaningful return for a “digital gold” narrative.

However, retail traders should be warned: Bitcoin’s 40%+ drawdown from its $126K peak demonstrates that even outperforming an asset during a war doesn’t mean profits are guaranteed. Leverage — especially through unregulated brokers — can turn a small Bitcoin move into a total account wipeout.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Bitcoin a safe investment during the Iran war?

Bitcoin has outperformed stocks and gold since the Iran war began in late February 2026, gaining roughly 8%. However, it remains over 40% below its October 2025 all-time high. It is not “safe” — all crypto carries significant volatility and risk.

Why is Bitcoin outperforming gold during the Iran conflict?

Several factors: Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes it immune to government asset freezes, institutional ETF inflows are providing consistent buying pressure, and its hard supply cap makes it an inflation hedge similar to gold — but with higher volatility.

How do I protect myself from crypto scams during geopolitical crises?

Only use regulated brokers and exchanges. Never invest based on unsolicited advice or urgent “crisis opportunity” messaging. Verify any broker at ScamBrokersReview.com before depositing funds. Never use leverage on crypto during high-volatility periods unless you fully understand the risks.

What happened to Bitcoin’s price after reaching $126,198?

After hitting its all-time high in October 2025, Bitcoin dropped more than 40% amid interest rate uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and broader crypto market corrections. As of mid-March 2026, it trades around $73,693.

Should forex traders buy Bitcoin now?

This is not financial advice. Forex traders interested in crypto should assess their risk tolerance, use proper position sizing, and trade only through regulated platforms. Avoid any broker that pressures you to buy crypto immediately based on war-time headlines.

Sources: CNBC (March 14, 2026), ProShares, Main Management. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Report scams at SEC Investor.gov.